Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 7.905458 9.091311 10.371035 11.851806 13.514977 15.322244 17.431568
2026-01-11 6.114193 7.702189 9.552046 11.854257 14.629772 17.854411 21.869861
2026-01-18 5.112677 6.837321 8.948637 11.701420 15.171122 19.372577 24.815190
2026-01-25 4.416300 6.233138 8.558369 11.717384 15.856879 21.051726 28.012316
2026-02-01 3.916830 5.795125 8.293617 11.810209 16.573115 22.732967 31.222675
2026-02-08 3.452678 5.341014 7.945514 11.733799 17.023257 24.054712 33.996601
2026-02-15 3.058748 4.934441 7.610789 11.624207 17.387238 25.242981 36.610931
2026-02-22 2.776664 4.656824 7.424652 11.692515 17.978425 26.742569 39.690697
2026-03-01 2.599921 4.517496 7.421442 12.012819 18.930241 28.770065 43.575835
2026-03-08 2.323631 4.190763 7.103416 11.830175 19.120280 29.705793 45.934087
2026-03-15 2.010632 3.770163 6.600783 11.319488 18.773660 29.826265 47.094087
2026-03-22 1.903442 3.683758 6.619946 11.621269 19.674263 31.814471 51.066564
2026-03-29 1.780073 3.560439 6.573510 11.821184 20.438035 33.650047 54.921889
2026-04-05 1.617178 3.349821 6.363210 11.735356 20.738773 34.788185 57.765470
2026-04-12 1.467082 3.145809 6.144755 11.614374 20.964824 35.805384 60.444883
2026-04-19 1.352056 2.995856 6.007691 11.619526 21.392310 37.149364 63.677334
2026-04-26 1.261282 2.883414 5.927712 11.715446 21.970879 38.750788 67.368700
2026-05-03 1.155845 2.730002 5.758840 11.638260 22.243490 39.858446 70.299342
2026-05-10 1.056804 2.578865 5.581035 11.529909 22.450275 40.857643 73.080045
2026-05-17 0.987601 2.483613 5.502373 11.597569 22.966157 42.385812 76.776817
2026-05-24 0.951340 2.456662 5.555460 11.915651 23.943696 44.727775 81.905128
2026-05-31 0.866076 2.310264 5.356477 11.734285 23.998743 45.486889 84.387440
2026-06-07 0.757997 2.098263 5.004493 11.227249 23.419895 45.115338 84.919098